Wondering what climate change will mean to you? Wondering if you will survive it, and how you can be prepared?
We are too.
Join the adventure to explore impacts, strategies and life hacks to make the inevitable a bit more hospitable.
Productive comments and inputs always welcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8 I don't always agree with Dr. Hansen on the social, economic and political factors and remedies because they oversimplify the complexity of these variables in actually being able to address and adapt to the situations. But as a climate scientist I respect what he has to say. This is worth the time it takes to listen to it. The concepts are fairly well developed and for folks who don't quite grasp all the technical aspects of climate modeling - in short what he is saying is that the models predicting climate change have a longer time horizon than reality seems to have. In other words, severe impacts of climate change are happening faster and sooner than anticipated, or we are screwed.
Greenland’s melting ice sheets are contributing more water to the oceans than previously realized, and that’s going to lead to even greater amounts of sea-level risearound the world, according to new research.
The paper, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, reveals something scientists wouldn't have expected just five years ago. “It’s a very rapid change,” said one of the study’s authors, William Colgan of York University in Toronto. “The ice sheet is now losing about 8,000 tons every second, year-round, day in and day out.”
Colgan said the “lion’s share” of that loss—about 5,000 tons per second—comes in the form of meltwater. The ice sheet, like a sponge, used to be able to absorb most of what melted each year because the uppermost layers are composed of tightly packed but permeable snow, as opposed to the impermeable layers of ice much farther below. That porous surface, called “firn,” normally would allow meltwater to sink downward, where it would refreeze and stay within the glacier.
That started changing about a decade ago. The meltwater started staying on the surface, forming massive “rivers” that traveled 30 miles down the ice sheet to the sea.
(Photo: Dirk van As, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland)
These rivers have always existed to a degree, but they used to only go about half as far.
“That led us to speculate that the downward motion was being blocked somehow,” Colgan said.
Testing their assumption required spending several brutal weeks on top of the ice sheet before the melting season, where temperatures plunged as low as minus 40 degrees Celsius. “We don’t have heating for a month while we’re out there, and you’re working with ice all day,” he said. “It’s a recipe for getting really cold. We’re as comfortable as we can be, but it’s still closer to the hardships of a polar expedition than to a modern office.”
After three five-week expeditions in 2012, 2013, and 2015—all spent camping in unheated two-person tents—the research team obtained core samples that explained the meltwater rivers. They found that a layer of ice existed where it shouldn’t have.
It all stems from an extreme melt that took place in 2012. When that melted snow refroze, it formed a layer of ice several meters thick in the middle of the firn. Now melting water hits that thick ice layer and can sink no farther. Since it can’t go down, it goes sideways. “The rivers go downhill from the high interior of the ice sheet toward the coast,” Colgan said.
That means the Greenland ice sheet is losing its ability to absorb much of its own meltwater, something that had been assumed under previous climate change models, according to the study.
“All the projections we made assumed the water would keep percolating vertically until it filled up all of that firn space,” Colgan said. “Now we can say that’s probably not going to happen over large areas of the ice sheet.” That, he said, means those earlier projections now underestimate Greenland’s current and future contributions to sea-level rise.
Experts said this new research adds to scientists’ knowledge of the fragility of Greenland's ice sheet. "The ice in Greenland is a big, complicated beast, but every time we have a new result lately it turns out it's melting faster than we thought," said Josh Willis, a NASA climate scientist who was not involved with the study. "We're seeing now more and more ways in which the Greenland ice sheet is disappearing faster than we thought."
The situation might worsen. That new ice layer in the firn is darker than the snow that would normally be there. “That’s important because it absorbs more solar energy and makes the ice sheet melt faster,” Colgan said.
The same phenomenon, Colgan said, is occurring in the Canadian High Arctic. What it means there will need additional study.
For much of human history we have been entertained by the notion that we are living in "The End Times" It makes us feel special. It makes us unique. It makes us matter. And it makes life a little less boring, really, when it comes down to it. And historically speaking we really think, or thought, we were living at the end. For example:
50 years ago it was the Cold War. The specter of Nuclear War was serious apocalyptic scariness.
Just about 100 years ago, the global economy first collapsed after World War I. Seriously nasty grim times.
150 years ago, in the US, the Civil War was ending. More US soldiers were brutally killed in that war than in all other US wars combined. An entire civilization had to be reordered. Man's inhumanity to man as on out door step. Again, not a great time.
Plagues, Famines, War, it is all there, and has been over and over. And every generation seems to have a narrative about how they will be "the last". Usually, that has not quite been the case, though we've had to make some serious adjustments in how we manage, how we function as individuals and communities. We suffered losses, and horrible sorrows. And yet, we, as a species, have survived. Climate change is easily apocalyptic too. When we look at the threats we will face our own survival can seem insurmountable. But like our history shows, we are amazingly adaptable as a species. We can adapt to this too. We may have deaths, sorrows, horrible conditions and losses (This would be why they call it "an apocalypse" people.) But with preparation, ingenuity, and hard work, we have a chance. Not everyone will make it. With our species exploding population on the planet, population dynamics suggest not everyone should survive, in principle. The carrying capacity of the planet is being seriously overstretched. And Mother Nature will win this. Have no doubt. Because she always does. To us it is an apocalypse. To her, it is a shift. Our apocalypse is her rebalancing. That is terrifying. That is serious. That is coming. We will see it. We need to be ready. That I am posting this today, the data of the Iowa Caucasus, is only a little bit ironic. And this topic - of apocalypses and Mother Natures, is something I'll spend some time on here on this blog. So we can be prepared.
Coming up next: Packing your "go bag": The first step in being prepared